Moose: Where’s the Defense?

The Moose enter the season as a wildcard with a new captain group and seven roster spots to fill. Like the Moose teams of old, they look very top-heavy. The biggest question is simple: who is playing defense? Hemker is clearly their No. 1 defender, but after him the picture becomes much less certain.

I can see Payne moving back to quarterback the offense, especially when Stradtman is not on the floor. Outside of that, though, most of the roster looks like forwards to me. I have not seen Ehrhard play, but he is listed as a forward on the website. Hannah Spain also feels more valuable up front, where she can help create secondary scoring behind Stradtman and McHatton. Steinmann can play defense, but this team needs puck movers, and that role fits him well.

That leads to the other major concern: who is creating the plays? Stradtman can generate offense on his own, but who is setting up McHatton, Spain, and the third line? Payne can set up McHatton and Spain, but he is better suited to do that from a forward role rather than from the back end. Using him on defense could make the offense too one-dimensional unless, and it raises another question: who covers defensively when he jumps up into the play?

With that said, this was not a bad draft. The Moose started with a skeleton roster and still built several pieces of a contender. They locked down McHatton for the next three seasons, secured Ehrhard, Steinmann, and Spain for the next two, and essentially established their core player group.

Outlaws: Who’s on first? I mean Who’s on Defense?

Windmiller, Hempen, and I discussed this team at length yesterday, and I think the only thing we agreed on was that we would use Labeda in different roles. Where Labeda plays changes the entire makeup of the roster. The other major question is Lyons. He wants to play forward, but he is willing to play back if needed.

The Outlaws could run three forwards and one defenseman, keeping AJ and Labeda on the floor as forwards while Loehr and Shaw handle the back end. They could also lean into a shutdown, puck-control style with Loehr, Labeda, Shaw, and Lyons on defense.

Either way, this should be a fun team to watch. They have a lot of speed and a huge amount of lineup flexibility on paper. The only curious part is that they did not sign anyone for more than one year and still have three contract years available.

Wolves: Feed the Monster

The Wolves look strong on paper. They have a high talent floor and high expectations, with elite scoring from Lucas, secondary scoring from Amato, Daniels, and Harshany, and strong forechecking from Brantlee and Yeargain. The key question is where to play Lucas.

I may be the only one who would put Brett on defense for this team. The Wolves cannot use Lucas the same way the Outlaws can use Labeda because they are missing another Tier 1 or high Tier 2 player to swap out with him. Lucas is an absolute monster on the rink, but you have to feed the monster or deal with the frustration at the bench.

Opponents will focus on Lucas, and if he is not producing, frustration can build quickly. If teams shut him down, the offense gets pushed toward Daniels in the slot. I expect Daniels’ goal totals to rise, but I am not sure he can produce enough by himself to win games consistently.

That is why I see Lucas as a better fit as an offensive defenseman, or a roaming defenseman if you will. Letting the play develop as he is crossing half court gives him more time and space. The downside is that he may not score 40 goals from the back end, but that may not matter. If Wall has Robben, Deak, Lucas, and Amato defending in front of him, teams are not going to score much. The Wolves can trade some goal volume for a stronger defensive structure and smother opponents into submission.

Key note: No matter how the Wolves start the year, they must find a way to keep Lucas happy. Their season and Cup chances hinge on his playmaking ability, and they cannot let him feel like he has to do everything himself. When that happens, the offense becomes easier to defend. I would not be surprised if they move him around period to period to keep opponents guessing. With Deak quarterbacking the play from the point, the forwards should also see an uptick in production. Be creative, and find a way to feed the monster.

Sting: Hold My Cup… Can you win the Cup in August?

As I said in my draft article, CoJo makes the Sting a Cup contender. After the draft, they are still my No. 1 team in the league. If this roster played the entire season together without missing anyone, they might go 16-0. They are that good on paper.

The Sting could have three top-10 goal scorers in CoJo, VJ, and TK. They also drafted Boucherie, who I believe can score seven to ten goals if he gets opportunities in the slot or in front of the net. On this team, he should have plenty of those chances. There are no weak skaters on the roster to exploit, and they have arguably the league’s top defensive core.

The lineup options are almost unfair. Do they run CoJo and TK on the first line with VJ and Pflasterer on the second? Or do they spread the scoring with CoJo/Bouch, VJ/Pflasterer, and TK/Thole? Even if they pair CoJo and TK, what team can match them across all three lines?

The only real weakness I see is penalties. CoJo and Riechmann are passionate players who can sometimes play too aggressively and take a bad penalty or two. VJ can also forget how strong he is along the boards when going against weaker skaters and end up taking penalties there.

I am curious to see how teams attack the Sting and what creative approaches they use to create space against this defense without giving up home-run chances to VJ and CoJo. Every turnover could become a breakaway for the top two lines. And it gets worse for the rest of the league: the Sting are structured well enough that they could potentially run this exact team back next year.

Yetis (Who’s showing up)

As of now, this is my Show-Me Division champs.  I’m basing that on Costillo going back to being a 40+ goal scorer and pairing that production with Stubbs in net.  But the question is do we get the “Nick of old”, or do we get the 2-3 goal a game Nick that we saw last season?  I also have questions about RJ and Webb's health.  Are they back to 100% and will they make every game this season/playoff? Availability will dictate the structure of their lines.  I think they may roll out some form of a 3-1 when the entire roster is available.  The addition of Meager helps them with the roster questions as he is a capable skater who can play forward or defense.  Look to see Jackson have a breakout year for the Yetis as he should find more room to make plays against the second and third lines.

Venom (Cash strapped but not out)

The offseason trade of Daniels to the Wolves for Tom Williams gave them an excellent forechecker to pressure opposing teams and freed up much needed cap space for the draft.  They used the extra cap space to bring on Raphael who should be able replicate Daniels goals while also being a bit more versatile around the rink.  I see this team utilizing a set of goal scorers (Mearns/Raphael), a set of puck chasers (Tom/Nevels/Welker), a set of net presence guys (Heatherly/Miller/Blackwood) and then running Kleinschmidt/Ranz on D.  I don’t see them running a 2-2 because outside of Heatherly, who else can play D?  The 3-1 gives them solid goal production matched with strong pressure on the puck.  You pair that with this defensive combo and Frank in net and you get a team that could be on the edge of the playoffs, or a team that is a trade or two away from being an absolute nightmare to contend with.  Look to see what Joey Blackwood can cook up for the Venom this year to get them back into the Cup finals.

Raptors (Who wants to make a deal)

The Show-Me Division semi-finalist had an excellent draft in my opinion.  This is a very balanced roster and should compete with the Yetis for the Show-Me Division title.  However, if the season doesn’t go their way they can easily sell off Haselhorst or Alberter and lock in top prospects on good contracts for the future.  They are also in prime position with their contracts that they can sell off a good contract or two and bring on another goal scorer.  This team is poised to break out, and I think they are one trade away from being a true challenger to the Sting.  Look for the trade rumors to start flying around after week four or five on whether this team is buyers or sellers.  I see this team playing a 2-2 but if Alberter is playing defense, who is getting pushed to forward?

Jets ( “Where’d he go?”  “Where’d who go?”)

After a spectacular season in which the Jets hoisted the cup, they lost a good chunk of their offense to the draft.  They were only able to bring back Beilke albeit at almost 3x his previous contract.  The Jets were relatively quiet for most of the draft but targeted their guys when they came up.  They beat the Thundercats for the bid for Owen Delesky, the former Neumann University Hockey club player and NARCH player where he averaged 1.5-2 ppg.  He filled in quite a bit for the Jets last season, so it’s no surprise they draft a known quantity.  They also brought in Nick Ruffini and Steven Hurt to fill out their roster.  I unfortunately don’t know much about Steven’s game so I can’t predict where he will play.  Nick is a solid depth guy who I expect will fill in on the Jets third line.  They will still have the 3-headed monster of Hellman/Whitt/Griffin to control the pace of play and keep the puck moving offensively, but how will this team look offensively? They lost 59 goals and 35 assists with the departure of Lucas and McHatton, and I don’t see this roster making up that type of production.  I’m expecting a slow pace of play with Whitt and Quinn running deep into the offensive zone to create plays, but it will leave them vulnerable defensively.  This is the year where we will see the Jets win/lose on the edge of Patrick’s game.  He will need to be confident in the net and confident that his team can win close games. I expect this team to make the playoffs but most if not all their games could be 1-2 goal games that go down to the wire.

Barracudas (Flexibility is the key to victory)

The Cuda’s are another team that I’m uncertain about regarding their lines, particularly who they run as their 2^nd defenseman on both pairs.  I expect them to run a 2-2 and I expect Berkman and Gilomen to be the top defenseman for each pair.  The question I have is do they run Cort and Jeff as the top offensive line, or do they put them on defense and run them as offensive defensemen?  Will they run two outstanding scoring lines or split their forward groups and mix DeClue/Poitras/Zobrist with Burton/Short/Wargo to have a more balanced attack?  This team has always excelled at moving the puck around the zone and keeping a strong net front presence.  That’s why I’m leaning towards them separating their bottom 3 guys and having them paired with strong forwards.  This allows them to play in front of the net to draw a defender down and pick up those dirty goals.  I predicted Zobrist to have 4 goals this season on my draft board but on this team, he might score 6+.  He’s not afraid to go to the net and teams will have to put a body on him or get burned on rebound goals.  O’Koniewski’s rookie season should be somewhat smooth with the addition of Chad Berkman on defense.  Chad is a big defender with good hands that eats up passes across the middle of the zone.  I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Koniewski’s salary went up $2-5 after the season because of strong defensive play from his team.  I expect this team to stay mostly intact for the season.  They are third on my preseason ranking in the Show-me division but if this team starts clicking and the Yeti’s end up struggling, they could come out as the division’s top team.

Pate’s first Hot Take of the season:

The Sting will go 2-0 vs the Thundercats in the season, but if they face them in the playoffs, the Thundercats win a low scoring game with the game winner coming from a Thundercats not named Mullins or Cheatham.